Overview
Baku returns — and with it the most unpredictable mix in Formula 1: a street circuit with a kilometre‑long flat‑out run to Turn 1, blind castle‑section walls, and a late‑race Safety Car probability that can flip any strategy. This Azerbaijan GP 2025 preview sets up the weekend with form after Monza, realistic tyre and pit‑window options, and bold but grounded predictions for both championships.
Two things define the modern Azerbaijan Grand Prix: the overwhelming pull of the slipstream on that mile‑long run to Turn 1, where DRS and battery timing can make you a hero or leave you a sitting duck; and the constant spectre of Safety Cars and red flags through the castle section, which compress the field, reset tyre life, and reward the brave (or the lucky) who gamble at exactly the right moment.
With no fastest‑lap bonus point in 2025, finishing positions are everything. That raises the premium on risk management when late Safety Cars tempt a tyre gamble. If you want a refresher on scoring and weekend formats, see our explainers on Sprint race points, standings in shortened races, fastest lap points history and the Constructors’ points system.
Where the championships stand before Baku
Using the latest RaceMate dataset (updated September 7, 2025), Oscar Piastri heads to Baku in command of the Drivers’ Championship on 324 points with seven wins, shadowed by McLaren teammate Lando Norris on 293 and five wins. Max Verstappen sits third on 230 with three victories and, crucially, renewed momentum after Italy. Behind them, George Russell’s consistency keeps him fourth on 194 with one win, while Charles Leclerc anchors Ferrari’s charge in fifth on 163.
The Constructors’ picture is even starker. McLaren’s machine‑like scoring has built a 617‑point total — a towering lead over Ferrari (280) and Mercedes (260), with Red Bull Racing (242) lurking and increasingly dangerous as their straight‑line efficiency returns. In other words, Baku is as much about protecting a McLaren advantage as it is about everyone else finding a way to dent it before the flyaways intensify.
Form guide: who’s hot after Monza
Monza, the sport’s cathedral of speed, gave us a preview of the power‑sensitive battles about to play out again. Verstappen’s victory there was the clean, clinical execution Red Bull needed — a sign that their trimmed‑out package can still win the drag races when it matters. Norris and Piastri followed him home, McLaren banking heavy points with the same blend of low‑drag efficiency and stout braking that should translate to Baku’s stop‑start demands. Just behind, Leclerc, Russell and Hamilton formed a second tier that looked poised to pick off opportunities if the leaders stumble — exactly the kind of scenario Baku specialises in creating.
Baku in a nutshell: why this street track is unique
1) Setup trade‑off: downforce vs drag
Everyone trims wing here, because the stopwatch on the main straight is merciless. But the price is paid at low speed: less rear stability through the castle section, lazier rotation in the 90‑degree corners, and a car that can’t quite bite over the kerbs. The winners in Baku thread that needle — enough load to survive the walls, enough efficiency to arrive at Turn 1 with a speed delta that makes overtakes routine. McLaren’s 2025 baseline lives in that sweet spot; Red Bull’s latest package looks increasingly comfortable there too.
2) Brakes and tyre temperature windows
The straight is so long that tyres and brakes chill between braking zones; the first hit into Turn 1 can feel like waking up cold hands. That places a premium on out‑lap choreography and energy management. Drivers and engineers will obsess over how aggressively to bring fronts in before the first big stop, how much deployment to save for the pass, and how to keep surface temps alive through the castle without cooking rears.
3) Safety Car probability and restart chaos
History says Baku doesn’t stay green forever. The walls are close, the track pinches around T8–T12, and a single yellow has a habit of snowballing into a Safety Car. When it does, the restart isn’t just a formality; it’s a launch contest that can reorder the top six before you reach the braking boards. Get the nose straight, hit your marks, and the tow will do the rest.
Strategy board: tyre deg, stints and pit windows
Baku usually trends toward a one‑stop race at full distance — Mediums into Hards and manage the drop‑off — because track position is king once the field spreads. The two‑stop only becomes attractive if the race hands you a gift: a late Safety Car that slashes the pit delta and turns a set of Softs into a genuine overtake weapon, or early graining that forces you onto an aggressive undercut and locks you into stopping again to defend.
There are 2025‑specific twists to keep in mind. With the fastest‑lap bonus gone since 2024, there’s no upside to a vanity stop; you only box late if you can pass cars. The undercut is fickle here because cold‑tyre out‑laps can be treacherous — a new Hard might take a sector to bite, giving the overcut a surprising edge if your in‑lap and pit entry are perfect. And under green, the pit delta stings thanks to that punishing main straight; strategy calls are often less about models and more about the timing of the next yellow flag.
Overtaking and racecraft: how to pass in Baku
The opening braking zone is the canvas for most moves, and the art lies in the setup. You need the battery to bite, the tow to swell at exactly the right moment, and the confidence to claim the inside. If you don’t make it at Turn 1, resist desperation: the residual slipstream to Turn 3 offers a measured second chance without inviting contact. Through the castle, patience beats bravado — the walls punish millimetres, and the real opportunities live two sectors later. On restarts, the race begins long before the line; the best drivers open the throttle early, straighten the car sooner than rivals, and let physics draft them into range.
Team‑by‑team outlook
McLaren — The points machine to beat
McLaren arrive on top of the world standings — Piastri on 324 points with seven wins, Norris on 293 with five — and the MCL39’s efficiency profile fits Baku like a tailored suit. Low drag without losing stability is the golden ticket, and McLaren have cashed it all year. Expect them to split approaches if Verstappen forces an offset: one car covers the undercut risk, the other commits to clean air and tyre life. A controlled 2–3 would extend their constructors’ advantage even if Red Bull nick the win.
Their ceiling will be defined by the first 600 metres and the castle. Nail the launch, avoid the yellow‑flag lottery through T8, and make the first stop from strength, not panic — that’s the path to another heavy haul.
Red Bull Racing — Momentum play after Monza win
Monza mattered to Red Bull. Verstappen’s win wasn’t just points; it was proof that the trimmed package can front‑run again. If they keep drag in check, Max will relish the one‑on‑one fights into Turn 1 and the ability to dictate stint lengths from clean air. With no fastest‑lap point on the table, expect them to avoid vanity stops and prioritise track position late. Yuki Tsunoda’s traffic management could quietly swing the constructors’ subplot against Mercedes and Ferrari if he converts restarts into points.
Ferrari — Podium threat, execution must be sharp
Ferrari’s Sundays have steadied. Leclerc has tidied up execution and the SF‑25’s braking gives him confidence in the big stops; Hamilton’s racecraft remains a weapon when Safety Cars scatter the chessboard. They sit second on 280, but the goal here is realistic: qualify inside the first two rows, control the opening stint on Mediums, and make the first stop on their terms. Do that, and a podium is within reach with both cars in the top six at the flag.
Mercedes — High floor, opportunistic ceiling
Mercedes have become the dependable points hauler of 2025. Russell’s 194 points reflect a high floor, and Baku’s heavy stops flatter his feel on the brake pedal. If the W15 rotates cleanly at low speed, he’s a podium outsider, especially if we see a sprint to the finish after a late yellow. Rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s brief will be simple and strict: keep it out of the walls, stay inside the DRS trains, and be ready to cash in when the race resets.
Williams, Sauber, Aston Martin and the midfield
Williams’ low‑drag philosophy means Alex Albon (70 points) will always have a shot down the main straight; if attrition bites, P6–P8 is in play. Sauber’s Gabriel Bortoleto has quietly stacked results when top speed matters, and a well‑timed Safety Car could shovel him into the points again. Aston Martin will lean on Fernando Alonso’s encyclopedic racecraft to turn a tricky balance into damage limitation — patience, elbows out when it counts, and zero wing changes.
Predictions: Azerbaijan GP 2025
These are form‑weighted, slipstream‑aware calls — and Baku has a habit of making forecasters look foolish.
On balance, the win tips toward Max Verstappen. If Red Bull’s trimmed package holds its Monza form, his launch and straight‑line discipline should let him control the first stint, and from there he’s ruthless at managing gaps and tyre life. Behind him, Lando Norris is the most credible disruptor; McLaren’s race‑pace consistency and braking stability make him the favourite to keep Verstappen honest while protecting his tyres in clean air. Oscar Piastri, the title leader, projects a slightly more conservative curve here: with a 31‑point buffer to Norris, he can afford to manage risk and still bank a podium — the smarter play in a championship frame.
Best of the rest? Charles Leclerc’s day will be defined by his start and Ferrari’s pit timing; from the front two rows he can defend hard into Turn 1 and turn that into a P4 anchor. George Russell’s strength on the brakes and Mercedes’ preference for tidy execution put him in P5 on merit, with upside if a restart sprints to the flag. Lewis Hamilton’s veteran patience often turns Baku’s chaos into quiet progress; pick the right moments after the castle, and P6 looks like par with potential for more.
For wild cards inside the points, Alex Albon’s Williams is built for a drag race — if he’s within DRS range, he’ll take it. Gabriel Bortoleto has impressed with clean management in high‑speed trims, and an opportunistic stop under caution could slingshot him forward. Isack Hadjar’s racecraft in mixed fields makes him a late‑restart menace; give him a sniff and he’ll send it.
What a late Safety Car would change
If a Safety Car drops with eight to twelve laps remaining, the whole complexion flips. Soft becomes the default restart tyre, and the top four face a brutal calculation: protect track position in clean air, or cover the undercut and risk ceding the lane? The answer often lives in the pit‑exit delta and who you’ll rejoin behind; if you can slot out with immediate tow to the next car, fresh rubber pays you back within a lap. This is also where the midfield can steal a march. Williams and Sauber, free from the burden of leading, can dive early, avoid double‑stack penalties and let the slipstream do the rest.
Key questions heading into Baku
Can Red Bull’s trimmed‑out package truly match McLaren’s ruthless efficiency over a full stint? Will Ferrari qualify close enough to control the first stop rather than react to it? How brave will Mercedes be with undercuts if tyre warm‑up proves fickle? And in the moment that defines most Baku races — the lap‑30 Safety Car — who blinks first?
How this race could swing the titles
For the Drivers’ title, Piastri’s 31‑point lead over Norris buys him the right to play percentages. If Verstappen wins and the McLarens fill the podium behind, the mathematics barely shift inside Woking; the intra‑team duel remains a two‑car conversation, and the priority stays on maximising combined hauls.
In the Constructors’, McLaren’s 617‑to‑280 cushion over Ferrari means the team can extend their margin even without standing on the top step. A double podium would do more damage to their rivals than any single win from elsewhere. For Red Bull, the target is narrower but clear: convert Verstappen’s form into a victory and find points with the second car to pull Mercedes and Ferrari back into reach.
If you’re new to the mechanics behind these swings, our guides on how points work in shortened races and the constructors’ scoring model are a perfect refresher.
Setup and strategy cheatsheet
Think low‑drag, not low‑grip. The lap time is in the end‑of‑straight speed, but the race is lost if the rear steps out through the castle or traction zones. Energy deployment is a weapon to be budgeted: save enough to launch past the finish line and defend decisively into Turn 1. At full distance, the one‑stop Medium‑to‑Hard remains the baseline, with Softs reserved for a late caution that turns the finale into a sprint. The undercut’s volatility demands discipline on out‑laps — warm the tyre without sliding it — and every strategist in pit lane will have a finger hovering over the Safety Car models. Expect at least one reset; grid discipline on the restart might be worth more than a tenth per lap.
FAQ: Azerbaijan GP 2025 preview quick answers
Who are the favourites to win the Azerbaijan GP 2025?
Based on Monza form and straight‑line efficiency, Max Verstappen and McLaren’s duo lead the pecking order. Ferrari are podium threats if they qualify on the front two rows.
What is the likely F1 strategy at Baku this year?
Expect a one‑stop (Medium→Hard) at full distance, with late Safety Cars opening a Soft sprint to the flag. The undercut’s power depends on tyre warm‑up; overcutting can still work with clear air.
How strong is DRS and the slipstream in Baku?
Very strong. The mile‑long main straight plus DRS creates one of the best overtaking zones in F1. Launch and battery timing are crucial.
Does F1 still award a fastest‑lap point in 2025?
No. The fastest‑lap bonus was discontinued from 2024 onwards, so only finishing positions score in both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships.
How could a shortened race affect points?
If the Grand Prix is shortened, the sliding points scale applies based on race distance completed under green‑flag laps. See our full explainer: How F1 standings work in shortened races.
Where can I learn more about F1 points and championship rules?
Start with our core explainers: Sprint race points, fastest lap points history, and the Constructors’ Championship points system.
Baku rarely follows a script. Track the live twists — and watch the F1 championship standings update in real time during the Azerbaijan GP — with RaceMate.