Strategy Risk vs Points Gain: The Tradeoff Simulators Expose
Aggressive strategy is one of the easiest places in Formula 1 to confuse volatility with value. When a bold undercut wins on Sunday, it’s tempting to treat that result as proof the call was “the fastest” or “the correct” one. But strategy is a decision under uncertainty: you don’t choose the outcome, you choose a probability distribution of outcomes. The practical question isn’t “can this win?”—it’s “does this improve our expected points enough to justify the extra downside risk?”
Read More →