Predicting Title Fights: A Simple Simulation Framework
A title fight looks simple on a standings table and complicated everywhere else. One driver leads; another has “momentum”; a team brings an upgrade; someone takes an engine penalty; and suddenly fans talk as if the rest of the season is deterministic. A good F1 calculator doesn’t do that. It accepts that a championship is a distribution of outcomes shaped by performance, reliability, and conversion over many races—and it gives you a disciplined way to think in ranges, not headlines. The goal of this post is a practical mental model you can reuse in any season: read title probabilities as structured uncertainty, then pressure-test the assumptions behind them in the Season Simulator.
Read More →