Pre-Season Lap Times vs Season Simulations
Pre-season testing is the most over-interpreted dataset in Formula 1. It’s the first time we see new cars run meaningful mileage, and it’s natural to anchor on what looks measurable: the lap time. But a championship isn’t awarded for the fastest Thursday in February—it’s awarded for accumulating points across a season full of reliability swings, upgrades, track-specific strengths, and inevitable randomness.
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