Can Oscar Piastri still win the 2025 F1 Championship?

Yes. He trails by 24 points with 83 available. He needs at least one big swing weekend and then to consolidate; countback could decide a tie.

Is Max Verstappen still in title contention after Brazil?

Mathematically, yes at 49 behind. He must outscore Norris by around 50 across the final three weekends, likely requiring two standout results.

How many points remain after the Brazil Grand Prix?

There are 83 points left: three Grands Prix worth 25 each and one Sprint with 8 points to the winner.

When can the 2025 Drivers’ title be clinched?

If the leader is more than 58 points ahead after the next non‑Sprint GP, the championship is sealed. If the Sprint weekend is next, a lead over 50 after that weekend is enough.

Who has already won the 2025 Constructors’ title?

McLaren have secured the Constructors’ Championship. The remaining interest is the order from P2 to P5 and how team strategy affects the drivers’ title.

Championship Standings After Brazil: Title Permutations Explained

The F1 standings after Brazil finally gave us separation at the top. Lando Norris leaves São Paulo on 390 points, Oscar Piastri sits on 366, and Max Verstappen holds 341. With three Grands Prix and one remaining Sprint (83 points total) still on the board, the title math tightens: only Norris, Piastri and Verstappen remain alive. Below, we break down the real points picture from Interlagos, what the gaps mean, and how the final three weekends can swing using RaceMate’s Championship Simulator. Expect hard numbers, not vibes.

Data analysis: Brazil results and the new points landscape

Interlagos was decisive because the leader maximized. Norris controlled the race from pole and never looked threatened over the final stint. Rookie Kimi Antonelli delivered a career-best P2 for Mercedes, and Verstappen rescued P3 from a pit-lane start to keep faint hopes alive. Piastri’s P5—after a penalty—was costly in pure title EV.

Brazil GP top 10 result (Interlagos, 71 laps)

Pos	Driver	Team	Pts
1	Lando Norris	McLaren	25
2	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	18
3	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	15
4	George Russell	Mercedes	12
5	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	10
6	Oliver Bearman	Haas	8
7	Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	6
8	Isack Hadjar	Racing Bulls	4
9	Nico Hülkenberg	Sauber	2
10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	1

Updated Drivers’ Championship (top 12)

Pos	Driver	Points	Gap
1	Lando Norris	390	—
2	Oscar Piastri	366	24
3	Max Verstappen	341	49
4	George Russell	276	114
5	Charles Leclerc	214	176
6	Lewis Hamilton	148	242
7	Kimi Antonelli	122	268
8	Alexander Albon	73	317
9	Nico Hülkenberg	43	347
10	Isack Hadjar	43	347
11	Oliver Bearman	40	350
12	Fernando Alonso	40	350

Constructors’ Championship (top 10)

Pos	Team	Points
1	McLaren	756
2	Mercedes	398
3	Red Bull	366
4	Ferrari	362
5	Williams	111
6	Racing Bulls	82
7	Aston Martin	72
8	Haas	70
9	Sauber	62
10	Alpine	22

What matters in the title math:

Remaining points: 83 (three GPs at 25 each + one Sprint at 8 for the winner).
Mathematical cut: Russell and below are eliminated (>83 behind). The three-way fight is Norris–Piastri–Verstappen.
Wins tiebreaker: Norris and Piastri are level on victories, so if they tie on points the countback proceeds to seconds, thirds, etc. That makes raw point swings even more critical.

Title permutations with the RaceMate Championship Simulator

Use the RaceMate Championship Simulator to pressure-test these scenarios, swap finishing orders, and see live percentage swings: /simulate

Scenario 1 — Norris converts Vegas pressure into a near-clinch

Suppose the next round is a standard Grand Prix weekend. If Norris wins (25) and Piastri finishes P5 (10), the gap widens by +15 to 39. With 58 still available afterward, Piastri would need to average a +19 swing per remaining weekend. Verstappen would be 64 back if he finishes P3 (+15) in that case—still alive, but requiring a crushing final two weekends. Run this baseline in Simulate and test sensitivity: even dropping Norris to P2 and lifting Piastri to P4 only trims the swing to +8 for Lando.

Scenario 2 — Piastri’s max attack on the Sprint weekend

Across the lone remaining Sprint weekend (max 33 for a clean sweep), imagine Piastri nails the 33 and Norris scores 14 (P5 + Sprint P5). That’s a 19‑point gain, cutting the gap from 24 to just 5. Feed that into Simulate and you’ll see a live flip in title probability because count back is currently neutral on wins; a small Sunday wobble then decides everything.

Scenario 3 — Verstappen’s last-chance ladder

At 49 behind, Verstappen’s path requires outscoring Norris by ~50 across the final 83. In practical terms: one win where Norris finishes P7 or lower plus another podium swing on the Sprint weekend—and no off-days. In Simulate, give Max a P1 + Sprint P2 (+33 or +15 type nets vs. Norris P6–P8 totals). Any non-podium from Max in the next two events typically drops his live title probability into rounding error.

Key takeaway: Norris doesn’t need perfection—he needs to avoid negative outliers. Piastri needs one heavy swing (a 15–20 point weekend) and clean consolidation. Verstappen needs two.

Supporting analysis: what really shifted at Interlagos

Tyre deg and stint control: Norris’s advantage in Brazil wasn’t raw peak pace; it was delta control on medium-to-hard degradation. He extended first stints without pace collapse, safeguarding a short final run. That’s the style that protects a 24‑point lead—high floor, low variance. Championship impact: low-variance Sundays keep Piastri’s required gain near 20 points per weekend, which is statistically rare without external chaos.
Mercedes traction and Antonelli’s step: Antonelli’s P2 wasn’t a fluke. The W16 looked planted off Turns 3 and 12, letting him defend late with strong exit velocity. If Mercedes remain this good in traction-limited zones, they can keep stealing podium chunks from McLaren and Red Bull. Championship impact: every Antonelli/Russell podium between Norris and Piastri raises the bar for Oscar’s comeback.
Red Bull’s recovery window: Verstappen’s pit-lane-to-podium showed the car is still efficient in free air with strong straight-line and low drag. But starting deep killed his ceiling. Championship impact: qualifying recovery is non‑negotiable now. If Max starts top 3 in the next two, his ladder route stays open; if not, the 49‑point gap is terminal.
Ferrari volatility: A messy Interlagos, including damage and retirement, masked intermittent pace. For the title, Ferrari’s relevance is indirect: they can be spoilers that either buffer Norris from Piastri or vice versa. Their variance feeds or starves the swings Piastri needs.
Constructors already decided: McLaren’s 756 total ends that contest with room to spare. Constructor dynamics still matter, though—team orders, pit windows, and undercuts will increasingly be optimized around Norris vs. Piastri rather than pure race-by-race upside.

Practical title math you can trust

Points remaining: 83.
Norris clinch thresholds by stage:
- After next non‑Sprint GP: If he leads by >58, it’s over. If the next weekend is the Sprint one, a >50 lead afterward seals it.
- Across the final three weekends: Piastri must gain ≥25 to pass Norris; ≥24 to tie (then countback applies). Verstappen must gain ≥50 to pass.
Likely swing sizes: A typical “win vs. P5” GP swing is 15; a Sprint “P1 vs. P5” swing is 4. To compress a 24‑point gap, Piastri needs one big GP swing plus smaller Sprint/Podium edges.

Want to see how a single Safety Car or undercut changes everything? Open the live sandbox and run your own permutations in the RaceMate Championship Simulator: Simulate