Midfield Movers: Who Can Climb in the Final 3 Races?

The final triple-header sets the stage for a proper “best of the rest” shootout. With Vegas under neon, Qatar in Sprint trim, and Abu Dhabi’s sunset finale, the midfield battle is alive from P5 in the constructors to a knot of drivers vying for “best of the rest” honors behind the title fight. Three circuits, varied demands, and one Sprint mean volatility — exactly what the midfield feeds on. The key dates: Las Vegas (November 22), Qatar with a Saturday Sprint (November 30), and Abu Dhabi (December 7).

The headline gaps

  • Drivers: Lando Norris leads on 390, Oscar Piastri sits on 366, Max Verstappen 341 — but the midfield story starts with Alex Albon in P8 on 73, then a compact pack from Nico Hülkenberg and Isack Hadjar on 43 down to Liam Lawson on 36. That’s a 7‑point spread covering P9–P14, a single result from flipping.
  • Constructors: McLaren are champions on 756. The real knife-fight is P5–P9: Williams 111, Racing Bulls 82, Aston Martin 72, Haas 70, Sauber 62, with Alpine at 22 as the outsider. That’s a 49‑point span across five teams with three race weekends to play — and one of them a Sprint.

What the calendar rewards

Las Vegas Grand Prix (Nov 22)

Long straights, big stops, cool night temps. Straight‑line efficiency and brake stability matter, while tyre warm‑up on a low‑grip surface can make or break qualifying. Expect DRS trains if you miss the top‑speed window, and watch for Safety Car timing to swing strategy risk. Local times are earlier this year — a nod to U.S. audiences — which may nudge track temps up slightly vs. 2024’s late‑night chill.

Qatar GP Sprint Weekend (Nov 30)

Lusail’s long, loaded corners punish front‑axle wear and thermal deg. Sprint Saturday (SQ + Sprint) adds parc fermé constraints, rewarding cars that roll out with a broad operating window. In short: aero efficiency, tyre preservation, and operational cleanliness.

Abu Dhabi GP (Dec 7)

Yas Marina is traction‑limited out of low‑to‑medium speed corners, with meaningful straight‑line segments after the reprofile. Balance and rear grip drive race pace; qualifying remains critical given track position and historically modest tyre degradation.

The points math that matters

  • Classic GP scoring caps at 25 for a win plus 1 for fastest lap; teams can harvest 44 max per race with a 1–2 and the fastest lap. With three Grands Prix left, that’s 132 theoretical team points on Sundays alone — plenty for swings from P6–P9 even without a shock podium. Add the Sprint (8–1 for P1–P8) and a team can bank up to 15 more on Saturday if they lock out the top two. Combine that with a volatile Vegas and a tyre‑sensitive Qatar and you get real jeopardy for everyone from Racing Bulls to Sauber.

Form guide and field position

Brazil told us two things: McLaren’s title pace is sustained, and the midfield’s momentum is fluid. Kimi Antonelli’s P2 reset Mercedes’ buffer for P2 in the constructors, Max Verstappen rebounded to P3 from the pit lane, and the midfield scored opportunistically — including Ollie Bearman’s P6 and Pierre Gasly’s P10. Ferrari’s double pain left them on the back foot entering the flyaways, while Williams and Aston couldn’t convert.

Current midfield scoreboard after São Paulo:

  • Williams 111; Racing Bulls 82; Aston Martin 72; Haas 70; Sauber 62; Alpine 22.
  • Drivers in the “best of the rest” chase: Albon 73; Hülkenberg 43; Hadjar 43; Bearman 40; Alonso 40; Sainz 38; Lawson 36; Stroll 32; Ocon 30; Tsunoda 28; Gasly 22; Bortoleto 19.

Team‑by‑team: who climbs from here?

Williams (P5, 111)

Williams own the pole position in the midfield, but 29 points over Racing Bulls isn’t unassailable with a Sprint still to run. Vegas should suit their low‑drag, high‑efficiency setups and Mercedes power on the Strip’s long pulls, especially if they thread the needle on tyre warm‑up in cooler Nevada air. Qatar is trickier: Albon’s racecraft can protect a marginal front axle, while Sainz’s opening‑lap acuity and management could be decisive across Sprint + GP. Keep an eye on split strategies if they’re covering undercuts. The target: defend P5 and sniff an opportunistic big score at Vegas.

Racing Bulls (P6, 82)

Lawson + Hadjar have quietly assembled a live shot at P5. The Sprint at Lusail is their best weapon — if they qualify cleanly on Saturday, the car’s agility can translate into double‑digit weekend totals even without Sunday fireworks. Vegas is more about top‑speed trimming and braking stability; marginal gains in straight‑line efficiency will decide whether they attack Williams or fend off Haas/Aston. They need one weekend north of 12–14 points to truly threaten P5.

Aston Martin (P7, 72)

Alonso’s racecraft remains the team’s trump card when the tyre picture gets messy; Qatar’s deg window is tailor‑made for management backs‑to‑the‑wall. Vegas depends on how much friction drag they can carve out in low‑downforce trim; Abu Dhabi is the more natural hunting ground with traction‑sensitive exits and a more benign deg curve. If they tidy Saturdays, they have the baseline to beat Haas and hold off Sauber.

Haas (P8, 70)

Momentum reads Haas. Bearman’s Brazil P6 showed the car can convert when the window opens, and Ocon’s baseline consistency underpins weekend floors. Vegas offers slipstream opportunities if they qualify in the DRS train; Qatar Sprint can multiply a good grid. This is the likeliest “mover” to jump Aston — the gap is only two points — and put Racing Bulls under direct pressure if they land a double‑score at Lusail.

Sauber (P9, 62)

Hülkenberg is the constant; Bortoleto’s learning curve is trending up. Vegas should reward Nico’s braking feel and race‑craft in traffic; Abu Dhabi’s traction zones can be managed if they protect the rears on longer stints. Eight to ten points over the next two Sundays would throw them right into the Haas/Aston dogfight.

Alpine (P10, 22)

The upward tick is modest but real: Gasly’s Brazil point hints at incremental stability, while the team’s Saturday ceiling remains the bottleneck. Lusail’s Sprint format is a second chance — if they qualify the car into clean air, holding position is significantly easier than overtaking with high thermal deg. Expect opportunism over pure pace.

Driver watch: the “best of the rest” belt

  • Alex Albon (73): The belt is his to keep. Vegas is the big chance for headline points; Abu Dhabi should be about consolidation.
  • Nico Hülkenberg / Isack Hadjar (43): Tied on raw points, but very different paths. Hülkenberg leans on qualifying precision; Hadjar’s upside is the Sprint. Qatar could flip their order — twice.
  • Ollie Bearman / Fernando Alonso (40): Bearman has form on his side after Brazil; Alonso has the toolkit for Lusail tyre chess. A single top‑six in any of the last three races could be decisive.
  • Carlos Sainz (38) and Liam Lawson (36): Both are waiting for one clean Saturday to cash in. Vegas slipstreams might be the leveller.

RaceMate Power Index: who actually moves?

  1. Haas to P7 in the constructors
  • Why: momentum + Sprint upside. Haas are two points off Aston and have a driver pairing trending up. Probability: better than 50/50 if they score on Saturday in Qatar.
  1. Racing Bulls under pressure for P6
  • Why: 82 points isn’t safe if Haas and Aston both find double‑digit weekends and Vegas turns into a high‑attrition race. Sprint format is their defence — they must bank on Saturday to pad the buffer.
  1. Sauber the live long shot
  • Why: only 10 back from Aston and 8 from Haas. A Vegas top‑eight plus an Abu Dhabi double‑score could vault them to P7 if rivals stumble.
  1. Williams to hold P5
  • Why: a 29‑point cushion is substantial, and Vegas suits them on paper. Only a major zero plus a Racing Bulls breakout would change the picture.

Strategy levers that decide it

  • Sprint risk tolerance (Qatar): Commit to Saturday performance — tyres and cooling apertures optimised for SQ/Sprint — or bias for Sunday? Midfield teams that “bank” Sprint points gain optionality for the GP.
  • Vegas safety cars and tyre warm‑up: Track temp and timing can flip a one‑stop vs. two‑stop call; undercuts amplify if you nail out‑lap warm‑up.
  • Abu Dhabi pit delta and track position: Early stops to jump the train vs. extending for softs in clean air. Qualifying carries outsized weight here.

The bottom line

The midfield will be decided by operational sharpness more than raw pace. Williams start as favourites to lock P5; Racing Bulls, Aston, Haas and Sauber are set for a four‑team shuffle across three very different venues, with a Sprint Saturday waiting to magnify any slip. If Brazil taught us anything, it’s that momentum is real — and it can change in a single corner. Bring on Vegas, Lusail and Yas.