Predicting the Las Vegas Winner Using 75 Years of Data

Predicting the Las Vegas Winner Using 75 Years of Data

Neon nights, cool desert air, and 6.201 km of high‑speed brinkmanship. The Las Vegas Grand Prix is back on Saturday, November 22, with qualifying set for Friday at 8:00 p.m. PT and the race at 8:00 p.m. PT — two hours earlier than last year to better suit U.S. audiences.

With only two modern editions in the books, we lean on 75 years of F1 data — street‑circuit trends, cold‑weather behavior, long‑straight dynamics, and qualifying conversion — plus 2025 form lines to build a probabilistic picture of who’s most likely to win on the Strip.

• Circuit: 6.201 km, 50 laps, 309.958 km race distance; 17 corners and two DRS zones. Almost 80% of the lap is at full throttle.
• Tyres: Pirelli brings C3 (Hard), C4 (Medium), C5 (Soft); the earlier sessions should slightly ease warm‑up.
• Recent Vegas form: George Russell took pole (1:32.312) and the win in 2024; Lando Norris set the fastest lap.

If you want the engineering and setup picture before diving in, our companion pieces have you covered: Las Vegas Track Guide: High‑Speed Strip, Setup & Cooling Challenges and Development Tracker: Who’s Bringing Upgrades to Las Vegas 2025?.

Where the Title Fight Stands Coming Into Vegas

Three rounds remain after São Paulo, and McLaren have already sealed the 2025 Constructors’ Championship. In the Drivers’ standings, Lando Norris leads Oscar Piastri by 24 points, with Max Verstappen third. Piastri hasn’t stood on the podium in the last five races, while Verstappen has reeled off a podium streak.

• Drivers’ top five after São Paulo: Norris 390, Piastri 366, Verstappen 341, Russell 276, Leclerc 214.
• Mercedes are on the ascendancy too — Russell owns two wins this season and was last year’s Vegas victor.

For a deeper look at qualifying trends shaping Sundays, see Qualifying Kings: Which Drivers Deliver Under Pressure?.

What 75 Years Say About Vegas‑Type Races

Our historical model clusters events by circuit DNA rather than name alone. Las Vegas groups with “long‑straight, low‑drag, low‑temp street circuits” — think Baku and Jeddah characteristics with an added tyre‑warm‑up tax. The signals that most inflate win probability are:

• Front‑row start on a low‑degradation, long‑straight circuit (heavy track‑position premium once tyre temps stabilize)
• Strong straight‑line efficiency (DRS effectiveness + slipstream potency on the 1.9 km Strip)
• Clean tyre warm‑up on softs in cold conditions (shorter prep = better second push in Q3)
• Neutralisation resilience (ability to restart on cold tyres without front‑axle graining)

The catch: Vegas punishes over‑rotation on cold fronts and late‑braking stability. That’s why “comfort on out‑laps” and “entry stability on S1/Turn 14 braking” carry almost as much weight in our model as raw top speed.

For more tyre context across eras, revisit F1 Tyre Strategy Through the Decades — Lessons for Las Vegas.

The Strip Circuit Factors That Will Decide 2025

• Two DRS zones and nearly 80% full throttle elevate the reward for efficient, low‑drag aero. McLaren and Red Bull have typically owned this window in 2025; Mercedes have improved their efficiency since the summer break.
• The C3/C4/C5 selection alongside earlier evening sessions should reduce the extreme warm‑up pain we saw in 2024, but the qualifying out‑lap remains a craftsmanship exam. Expect longer prep laps and a premium on track position for the final Q3 run.
• Strategy bias: one stop is viable if graining stays in check; two stops can pay if we get long VSCs/SCs that compress windows. Our sims show minimal spread between soft‑start one‑stoppers and aggressive two‑stoppers when the race runs green — track position wins.

Form Guide: Team‑by‑Team

McLaren

• Norris is the points leader and the grid’s metronome on race day; he also owns the 2024 Vegas fastest lap. Our form index has his medium‑stint degradation down 6–10% versus average across the last three rounds, which matters if temps dip.
• Piastri still has elite one‑lap speed but has endured a podium drought; a clean Q3 and first stint are critical to stop the slide.

Red Bull

• Verstappen’s podium streak and trademark restart craft travel well to Vegas; straight‑line efficiency is a core strength. Our model dings them slightly on initial tyre warm‑up in colder Q3 windows relative to McLaren, but their long‑run pace profile remains top‑tier.

Mercedes

• Russell was imperious here last year — pole and win — and 2025 has brought two more victories. The W16’s late‑season efficiency gains make them the primary disruptors if they qualify on the front row.

Ferrari

• Leclerc’s one‑lap ferocity could threaten the front row, but the team’s 2025 conversion rate from strong qualy to wins has lagged. If they lock tyres on the out‑lap or fight early, graining risk rises — a known Vegas tax.

Dark Horses

• Williams have carried strong straight‑line numbers at several venues; a clean Q2 could put Albon in the mix for points. Haas (Bearman) and RB (Lawson) have also banked opportunistic results in recent rounds — handy if we see late neutralisations.

RaceMate Probability Model: Vegas Win Odds (Pre‑Qualifying)

We ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations blending historical street‑circuit patterns, 2025 form, and Vegas‑specific parameters (session timing, compound selection, projected temps). Pre‑qualifying baseline:

• Lando Norris — 34%
• Max Verstappen — 27%
• Oscar Piastri — 20%
• George Russell — 12%
• Charles Leclerc — 5%
• The field — 2%

Why the split? Front‑row conversion and restart resilience drive the spread here more than usual. Norris tops both. Verstappen’s podium roll and Red Bull’s straight‑line profile keep him close. Piastri’s ceiling is unchanged, but recent execution volatility trims a few points. Russell gets a Vegas‑specific uplift for 2024 dominance and Mercedes’ late‑season form.

Pro tip: after qualifying, plug the actual grid and tyre usage into our live calculator to see how the title picture shifts — especially if a McLaren locks pole or if Russell sticks it on the front row. Try it now at /simulate.

Scenarios That Swing the Race

• If a McLaren locks pole: +18–22% combined win probability for the team; clean first stint on the C4 tends to set the tone.
• If Verstappen starts P3 or better: Red Bull’s undercut potency plus Vegas’ long DRS could flip track position into control by Lap 20–25.
• If Russell starts front row: expect Mercedes to trim more rear wing; watch for sector‑3 top‑speed parity with McLaren and a long first stint.
• Early Safety Car: two‑stop windows open; hard‑start gambits become attractive for those outside the top six.

Key Timings and Track Facts to Know

• Qualifying: Friday, November 21, 8:00–9:00 p.m. PT; Race: Saturday, November 22, 8:00 p.m. local start. Earlier start than 2024 should modestly help tyre warm‑up.
• Circuit: 6.201 km, 50 laps, two DRS zones; second‑longest street layout and among the highest full‑throttle profiles of the year.
• 2024 reference: Russell pole and win; Norris fastest lap — useful benchmarks for long‑run and quali targets.

Championship Context: What a Vegas Win Means

McLaren already have the constructors’ crown; the focus is squarely on the drivers’ title. A Norris win stretches the gap and tightens the vise before Qatar and Abu Dhabi. A Piastri win flips momentum and keeps the fight within a single race. A Verstappen win keeps mathematical hopes alive and pressures the McLarens to manage risk.

Model note: the title odds are highly sensitive to the Vegas result because of the sprint‑adjusted points landscape we’ve seen in recent rounds and the remaining double‑header. For exact permutations, use our interactive points tool at /simulate.

What to Watch in Practice and Qualifying

• Out‑lap choreography on softs: those who find temperature without over‑working the fronts will own Q3.
• Top‑speed sheets into Turn 14: efficiency checks who has trimmed the most — correlates strongly to race control here.
• Long‑run C4 behavior: look for teams with linear wear and minimal front graining as temps drop.

For setup and cooling nuances unique to the Strip, see Las Vegas Track Guide: High‑Speed Strip, Setup & Cooling Challenges. For who brought what, visit Development Tracker: Las Vegas 2025.

Bottom Line

Our pre‑qualifying model says Norris is the slight favorite, with Verstappen and Piastri in close orbit and Russell positioned as the spoiler. On a circuit where front‑row starts and restart poise matter more than raw cornering load, the win will likely be decided by who perfects tyre prep and owns the long first stint. Once we lock in the grid, the picture sharpens — and so will your title simulations at /simulate.