Intro
F1 midfield battle 2025 — updated after Mexico — where the prize‑money places are decided by execution, not headlines. With McLaren having clinched the Constructors’ crown, the season‑defining fight runs P5–P10: Williams vs RB vs Aston Martin vs Sauber vs Haas vs Alpine. Below we rank the best‑of‑the‑rest with a rolling 5‑race form table, quali→race conversion reads, points‑per‑race averages, and upgrade impacts — then plug it into our simulator to test how Brazil, Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi could flip the order.
Try the tool: /simulate
Rolling 5‑race form (Rounds 16–20 + USA Sprint)
Method: Points for each team across Italy GP (R16), Azerbaijan GP (R17), Singapore GP (R18), USA Sprint (R19), USA GP (R20). No fastest‑lap bonus in 2025. Totals include both cars.
| Team | Total points (last 5) | Avg per session |
|---|---|---|
| Williams | 31 | 6.2 |
| RB | 12 | 2.4 |
| Sauber | 8 | 1.6 |
| Aston Martin | 5 | 1.0 |
| Haas | 4 | 0.8 |
| Alpine | 0 | 0.0 |
Notes from results:
- Italy: Albon P7 (6), Bortoleto P8 (4), Antonelli P10 (2), Hadjar P10 (1).
- Baku: Sainz P3 (15), Lawson P5 (10), Hadjar P10 (1).
- Singapore: Alonso P8 (4), Bearman P9 (2), Sainz P10 (1).
- USA Sprint: Sainz P3 (6), Albon P6 (3).
- USA GP: Hülkenberg P8 (4), Bearman P9 (2), Alonso P10 (1).
Season points‑per‑race (through Mexico weekend)
Based on current totals divided by completed Grands Prix (20). Sprints excluded from denominator to provide a GP‑normalized view.
| Team | Season points | Pts/GP |
|---|---|---|
| Williams | 111 | 5.6 |
| RB | 72 | 3.6 |
| Aston Martin | 69 | 3.5 |
| Sauber | 59 | 3.0 |
| Haas | 48 | 2.4 |
| Alpine | 20 | 1.0 |
Interpretation: Williams own the midfield baseline; RB’s ceiling is higher than their average if Sundays stay clean; Sauber’s efficiency trend is quietly improving.
Quali→race conversion (recent trend, qualitative)
Because Mexico’s weekend didn’t have a public Q3 sheet embedded here, we classify conversion qualitatively from recent weekends:
- Williams — High: frequent Q3 bubble entries, strong points conversion when starting P9–P12.
- RB — Medium: when tow timing and sequencing are clean, Lawson/Hadjar convert; traffic kills plans.
- Aston Martin — Medium‑Low: Alonso still converts marginal starts; ceiling limited on high‑drag trim.
- Sauber — Medium‑Low: opportunistic when Safety Cars compress; needs better Saturday positioning.
- Haas — Low: braking temp swings and out‑lap sensitivity make undercuts fragile.
- Alpine — Low: needs attrition ahead or SC timing for P10.
Upgrade impact assessment (post‑Mexico read)
- Williams: Low‑drag/efficiency package continues to pay; brake management and pit discipline compound points.
- RB: Straight‑line carry solid; operational tidiness post‑Baku improved Sunday conversion.
- Aston Martin: Rear support through combined‑load corners remains the constraint; updates helped stability, not ceiling.
- Sauber: Efficiency steps show at power tracks; race‑start execution is the next unlock.
- Haas: Small gains in braking consistency post‑Singapore; still sensitive to out‑lap prep.
- Alpine: Aero load limited; upgrades haven’t shifted the points floor yet.
Prize‑money implications (P5 vs P6 vs P7)
P5 brings materially higher FOM payouts than P6/P7. With Williams ahead on both season PPR and 5‑race form, the burden shifts to RB/Aston to chip away via repeat double‑scores. Over the final four events (plus two sprints), small 2–4 point swings per weekend decide these places more than singular hero results.
For mechanics and examples, see: Constructors’ prize money and points model and tiebreakers.
Simulator: remaining‑races midfield scenarios
Use our simulator to model P5–P10 outcomes across Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi:
🏎️ Link to -> https://racemate.io/simulate
Test these scenarios:
- Williams double‑scores in Brazil; RB P7/P9 → P5 buffer extends by ~4–6 points.
- RB podium shock in Vegas; Williams P8/P10 → RB re‑opens the P5 fight into Qatar.
- Aston Martin steady P8–P10 in the final two → Beat Sauber/Haas to P6 on accumulation.
- Safety‑Car chaos in Abu Dhabi → Sauber/Haas can steal a 2–4 point swing that flips P7/P8.
More What‑ifs: /simulate
FAQ
Who leads the F1 2025 midfield after Mexico?
Williams lead the best‑of‑the‑rest both on rolling 5‑race form (31 points) and season Pts/GP (≈5.6), ahead of RB and Aston Martin.
Which teams are fighting for P5–P7 prize‑money slots?
Williams (favoured for P5), RB and Aston are primary; Sauber and Haas can swing P7/P8 with late‑race volatility.
How do I model midfield outcomes?
Use our simulator to set finishing orders and see standings change live: /simulate
Related reading and tools
- Earlier ranking (post‑Baku): /blog/best-of-the-rest-2025-midfield-power-ranking-post-baku
- Championship update after Mexico: /blog/f1-championship-standings-after-mexico-2025-title-permutations
- Mexico race results: winners & losers — /blog/mexico-city-gp-2025-race-results-winners-losers-standings
- Constructors’ prize money and scoring model — /blog/f1-constructors-championship-explained
Model the midfield fight and watch standings update live: /simulate