Quick take

If you’re scanning the grid for who brings real momentum into Baku, the recent points tell a clear story. Using the standard 2025 Formula 1 points scale for Grands Prix (25‑18‑15‑12‑10‑8‑6‑4‑2‑1) — with no fastest‑lap bonus since 2024 — here’s the form over the last five and last three races heading into the Azerbaijan GP:

Oscar Piastri (McLaren) — last 5: 101, last 3: 58
Lando Norris (McLaren) — last 5: 86, last 3: 43
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing) — last 5: 67, last 3: 45
George Russell (Mercedes) — last 5: 48, last 3: 37
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) — last 5: 39, last 3: 24
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) — last 5: 26, last 3: 8

These trendlines are computed from Britain, Belgium, Hungary, Netherlands and Italy (the five most recent completed rounds). Piastri remains the season’s points machine; Verstappen’s Monza win spikes his late‑form curve; Norris keeps stacking podium‑grade hauls; Russell’s consistency persists; Ferrari’s pair are steady but not surging.

For full rules on how points feed both titles, read our explainers: Sprint race points, standings in shortened races, fastest lap points history and the Constructors’ Championship points system. For a bigger context refresh, see: F1 Standings Explained (2025): Drivers vs Constructors.

Setting the scene: standings snapshot before Baku

Based on our live dataset (updated 2025‑09‑07):

Drivers’ top six: Piastri 324 (7 wins), Norris 293 (5), Verstappen 230 (3), Russell 194 (1), Leclerc 163, Hamilton 117.
Constructors’ top four: McLaren 617, Ferrari 280, Mercedes 260, Red Bull Racing 242.

The championship picture matters because Baku is a points amplifier: the main straight rewards trimmed‑out efficiency and restart discipline, while the castle section punishes overreach. With no fastest‑lap point in 2025, every strategy call is about finishing position value, not vanity stops.

Method in brief: how we measured “form”

We use the official 2025 Grand Prix points scale: 25‑18‑15‑12‑10‑8‑6‑4‑2‑1 for the top ten. There’s no fastest‑lap bonus since 2024.
We sum each driver’s points over the last five races and the last three races heading into Baku (Britain → Italy, then Hungary → Italy for the last‑three window).
We focus on the top six in the current Drivers’ Championship to avoid midfield noise and keep the analysis relevant to the title fight.

This yields momentum indicators that correlate with recent execution, reliability and outright pace — the factors that tend to translate to Baku’s stop‑start flow.

Driver mini‑profiles: momentum to Baku

Oscar Piastri (McLaren) — Relentless totals, low drama

Trendline: last 5 = 101; last 3 = 58
Recent highlights: Wins at Belgium and Netherlands; podium at Italy
What it says: Piastri’s curve is the steadiest in the field. Even when Verstappen peaks (Monza), Oscar banks high‑yield finishes that protect his Drivers’ Championship lead and compound McLaren’s constructors cushion. At Baku, that’s golden: track position trumps gambling, and his ability to convert “par” Sundays into heavy points is exactly how titles are secured.
Baku angle: Expect risk‑controlled aggression — cover the undercut threat, prioritise clean‑air laps, and avoid late vanity stops (they don’t exist in 2025 anyway). Another 18–25‑point day keeps him in command of the standings.

Lando Norris (McLaren) — The big hauls keep coming

Trendline: last 5 = 86; last 3 = 43
Recent highlights: Wins at Britain and Hungary; P2 at Italy
What it says: Norris matches Piastri’s ceiling on his days and rarely drops out of the points window. The last‑five sum is title‑grade; the last‑three shows a slight dip (Netherlands blank) then recovery at Monza. In a straight‑line, late‑braking duel into Turn 1, Lando’s confidence on the brakes keeps him in the win conversation.
Baku angle: If McLaren split strategies, Norris is the likely undercut aggressor. Convert track position off the line and he’s the most credible spoiler to a Verstappen slipstream masterclass.

Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing) — Spike at Monza, baseline improving

Trendline: last 5 = 67; last 3 = 45
Recent highlights: Win at Italy; P2 at Netherlands; solid scores through late summer
What it says: The last‑three points are second only to Piastri, mainly off Monza’s win and the Netherlands runner‑up. The trimmed‑out package is trending up; the question is tyre warm‑up after the long straight and traction into the castle — classic Baku execution items that Max historically nails.
Baku angle: If he controls the start and manages energy deployment perfectly, he can dictate stint lengths from clean air. With no fastest‑lap point on the table, the calculus is pure: defend track position, avoid soft‑tyre vanity plays.

George Russell (Mercedes) — High floor, opportunistic ceiling

Trendline: last 5 = 48; last 3 = 37
Recent highlights: Podium at Hungary; strong top‑five cluster across summer
What it says: Russell’s form graph isn’t spiky, but it’s resilient. He squeezes value from chaotic races and generally keeps the W15 inside the top six even when outright pace isn’t class‑leading. That’s exactly how you cash in at Baku when Safety Cars compress the field.
Baku angle: Podium outsider on merit with restart upside. If Mercedes rotate cleanly at low speed, George can bank another 12–15 points with sniff‑of‑P3 potential late.

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) — Execution tightening, ceiling still capped

Trendline: last 5 = 39; last 3 = 24
Recent highlights: Repeated top‑fours; podium run through mid‑summer
What it says: The curve is tidy rather than explosive. Ferrari’s braking stability and Leclerc’s precision under heavy stops make him dangerous in Baku’s big braking zones, but the recent sums say “podium threat” more than “win favourite.”
Baku angle: The job is to qualify on the first two rows, control the opening stint on Mediums and make the first stop on Ferrari’s terms. Do that, and P3–P4 is very much in play.

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) — Patience game, looking for a reset

Trendline: last 5 = 26; last 3 = 8
Recent highlights: Solid top‑six at Italy; race‑craft carrying marginal weekends
What it says: Hamilton’s Sundays often move forward even when raw pace isn’t there, but the last‑three window shows he needs a clean weekend to re‑ignite. Baku rewards veterans who manage restarts, energy, and survival through the castle; Lewis has made a career of turning chaos into points.
Baku angle: The path to a result is discipline and timing. If Ferrari can slot him into clear air after the first stops, he’ll harvest late.

What these curves imply for the championships

Drivers’ title

Piastri’s last‑five of 101 dwarfs the field and explains why he still leads the 2025 Drivers’ Championship. Verstappen’s 45 over the last three shrinks optics, but Norris remains the most persistent weekly threat to Oscar because McLaren’s aggregate is so robust. A Verstappen win with McLaren P2/P3 barely moves the intra‑McLaren duel; the real pressure point is whether Norris can out‑score Piastri by double digits on a weekend like Baku.

For a refresher on how every position changes the math, start here: F1 Standings Explained (2025) and our F1 Points System.

Constructors’ fight

Two strong scorers beat one superstar almost every time — and the table shows it: McLaren 617 vs Ferrari 280 vs Mercedes 260 vs Red Bull 242. Even if Verstappen wins Baku, McLaren can extend their lead with a controlled 2–3. That’s why teams obsess over combined hauls and why late‑race gambles without a fastest‑lap carrot rarely make sense in 2025.

Deep dive on the team title mechanics: Constructors’ Championship points system.

Why Baku specifically rewards current form

1) Launch and late braking into Turn 1

The kilometre‑long run is a purity test of low‑drag efficiency and battery timing. The drivers with recent form — Piastri, Norris, Verstappen — are the ones most likely to nail the acceleration window and claim or defend the lane into Turn 1.

2) Tyre warm‑up after a very long straight

Out‑laps can feel icy; rotations through the castle are hard to calibrate. Drivers who’ve been faultless lately on out‑laps and restarts tend to keep heat in the surface layer without sliding it away — the hallmark of the top three on our trend charts.

3) Safety Car probability and restart craft

Baku rarely runs green the whole way. Restarts are launch contests plus slipstream roulette. The recent‑form leaders are the most disciplined at spacing, throttle opening and energy deployment — the micro‑details that decide two‑by‑two drag races down to Turn 1.

If we do see a shortened race scenario (weather or repairs), remember the sliding scale: see our explainer on F1 standings in shortened races.

Form grid: ranking the momentum to Baku

Oscar Piastri — Best last‑five and last‑three totals; converts par weekends into heavy scores.
Lando Norris — Two recent wins; only blemish is the Netherlands blank; otherwise relentless.
Max Verstappen — Monza win and Netherlands P2 put him on a rising curve.
George Russell — High floor; opportunistic podium threat if chaos flips the order.
Charles Leclerc — Execution trending up; podium shot with clean qualifying and stops.
Lewis Hamilton — Needs a tidy, safety‑car‑aided Sunday to jump the order.

Note the margins: Verstappen’s last‑three total (45) edges Norris (43), but Piastri (58) sits well clear. Over one weekend, that gap is surmountable only if Oscar stumbles or the Safety Car lottery hits at exactly the wrong time for McLaren.

What would actually swing the Azerbaijan GP?

Qualifying inside the top four: With no fastest‑lap point in 2025, there’s little upside to dropping back for tyres. Grid position compounds through the first stint.
Clean first stop windows: The pit delta stings here; undercuts are fickle if tyres don’t bite. Overcut can work with perfect in‑laps.
Restart execution: Expect at least one reset. The best restarters will manufacture two positions without a single risky dive.

Strategy primer and points refresher: Sprint race points and fastest lap points history — useful context on why the 2025 calculus is finish‑position‑only.

FAQs

Who leads the 2025 F1 Drivers’ Championship right now?

Oscar Piastri (McLaren) leads on 324 points with seven wins, ahead of Lando Norris on 293 (five wins) and Max Verstappen on 230 (three wins).

How many points do you get for a Grand Prix win in 2025?

25 points for a win, then 18‑15‑12‑10‑8‑6‑4‑2‑1 down to P10. There is no fastest‑lap point since 2024.

Which teams are leading the Constructors’ Championship?

McLaren top the table on 617, ahead of Ferrari (280), Mercedes (260) and Red Bull Racing (242).

What are the strongest recent forms heading into Baku?

By last‑five/last‑three points: Piastri (101/58), Norris (86/43), Verstappen (67/45), Russell (48/37), Leclerc (39/24), Hamilton (26/8).

Where can I learn more about the F1 points and standings rules?

Start with our explainers: F1 Points System, Sprint race points, standings in shortened races, fastest lap points history and the Constructors’ Championship points system.

Track every overtake’s impact on the title fights — live. RaceMate recalculates both the F1 Drivers’ Championship and the F1 Constructors’ Championship standings in real time as the laps tick down.